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A common misapplication of statistical inference: nuisance control with null-hypothesis significance tests

机译:统计推断的一个常见误用:滋扰控制   零假设显着性检验

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摘要

Experimental research on behavior and cognition frequently rests on stimulusor subject selection where not all characteristics can be fully controlled,even when attempting strict matching. For example, when contrasting patients tocontrols, variables such as intelligence or socioeconomic status are oftencorrelated with patient status. Similarly, when presenting word stimuli,variables such as word frequency are often correlated with primary variables ofinterest. One procedure very commonly employed to control for such nuisanceeffects is conducting inferential tests on confounding stimulus or subjectcharacteristics. For example, if word length is not significantly different fortwo stimulus sets, they are considered as matched for word length. Such a testhas high error rates and is conceptually misguided. It reflects a commonmisunderstanding of statistical tests: interpreting significance not to referto inference about a particular population parameter, but about 1. the samplein question, 2. the practical relevance of a sample difference (so that anonsignificant test is taken to indicate evidence for the absence of relevantdifferences). We show inferential testing for assessing nuisance effects to beinappropriate both pragmatically and philosophically, present a survey showingits high prevalence, and briefly discuss an alternative in the form ofregression including nuisance variables.
机译:行为和认知的实验研究经常取决于刺激对象选择,即使尝试严格匹配,也不能完全控制所有特征。例如,当将患者与对照进行对比时,诸如智力或社会经济状况之类的变量通常与患者状况相关。类似地,当呈现单词刺激时,诸如单词频率之类的变量通常与感兴趣的主要变量相关。一种非常常用的控制此类讨厌效应的方法是对混杂刺激或主体特征进行推断测试。例如,如果两个刺激集的词长没有明显不同,则认为它们与词长匹配。这样的测试具有很高的错误率,并且在概念上是错误的。它反映了统计检验的一个普遍误解:解释重要性不是指对特定总体参数的推论,而是关于1.所质疑的样本,2.样本差异的实际相关性(因此,采用了不显着的检验以表明缺乏证据)相关差异)。我们展示了推论性测试,以评估在实际和哲学上均不适当的妨害效应评估,提出一项调查,以显示其普遍性,并以包括滋扰变量在内的回归形式简要讨论替代方案。

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